1. Intra-market arbitrage
Buy YES and NO when combined pricing falls below $1.00 after fees for risk-free redemption profit.
Open-source Python · Polymarket crypto markets
Polymarket Arbitrage Bot: 5 Trading Strategies Explained
Automated Python bot for Polymarket crypto prediction markets. Scans BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL markets, runs five arbitrage and trading strategies in parallel, ranks signals, and executes with built-in risk controls.
How the bot works
- Market discovery — scans Polymarket crypto prediction markets for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL via the Gamma and CLOB APIs.
- Parallel strategy scan — runs all five strategies on each eligible market (intra-market, combinatorial, cross-platform, endgame, momentum).
- Signal ranking — scores opportunities by profit, confidence, strategy priority, urgency, and risk/reward, then ranks the top candidates.
- Risk checks — enforces position limits, daily loss caps, stop-loss/take-profit, and consecutive-loss protection before any order.
- Execution — places trades through the Polymarket CLOB API (paper mode by default; live mode optional).
See the full scanning and ranking breakdown in the README.
Quick start
Requires Python 3.10+ and Polymarket API credentials in a .env file (never commit secrets).
git clone https://github.com/casatrick/polymarket-arbitrage-bot-python.git
cd polymarket-arbitrage-bot-python
pip install -r requirements.txt
# Paper trading (default — no real orders)
python bot.py
# Scan only, no execution
python bot.py --scan-only
# Live trading (real money)
python bot.py --liveRequired environment variables: POLYMARKET_API_KEY, POLYMARKET_SECRET, POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE, POLYGON_PRIVATE_KEY. See security and key handling in the README.
Five strategies in one bot
2. Combinatorial arbitrage
Extend YES/NO logic to multi-outcome markets when all outcome prices sum below $1.00.
3. Cross-platform arbitrage
Compare Polymarket prices against Binance and CoinGecko spot data for convergence trades.
4. Endgame arbitrage
Buy high-probability outcomes near resolution for short-duration, capital-efficient returns.
5. Momentum / mean-reversion
Use Z-score, RSI, rate of change, and VWAP divergence on 5m, 15m, and 1h timeframes.
Built for production trading workflows
- Composite signal ranking across strategies with configurable weights
- Position limits, daily loss caps, stop-loss, take-profit, and consecutive-loss protection
- Paper-trading mode before live deployment
- Private keys via environment variables — never hardcoded or logged
- Full source code ownership for licensing and custom builds
FAQ
- What is Polymarket arbitrage?
- Pricing inefficiencies in prediction markets — most commonly when YES and NO token prices do not sum to exactly $1.00, allowing a risk-free profit by buying both sides.
- Is a Polymarket arbitrage bot risk-free?
- Intra-market and combinatorial strategies are structurally risk-free when executed correctly because both outcomes are purchased for guaranteed redemption. Cross-platform and momentum strategies are directional and carry market risk.
- Which markets does this Polymarket arbitrage bot scan?
- The bot scans crypto prediction markets for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL across all five supported strategies.
- What timeframes does the bot support?
- Momentum and cross-platform strategies run on 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes for scalping, swing, and position-style trading.